The Review and Prospects of Internal and External Situations (issued in January 2008) reviews domestic and international public security situations in 2007 (as of the end of November) and prospects future trends. Topics discussed in this report include the situation of North Korea, where issues including nuclear development and the abduction of Japanese nationals remain, trends in international terrorism that show the expanding menace of attacks by Islamic extremists and other terrorist groups, and the issue of Aum Shinrikyo, which continues its activities with its members’ absolute faith in ex-leader Asahara even after the cult’s split as a result of conflict over its management. This report also contains a feature explaining domestic and international situations prior to the Hokkaido Toyako Summit. The report also explains measures being taken and those that need to be taken by the Public Security Intelligence Agency under these circumstances.
The months mentioned in this report refer to the year 2007, unless otherwise noted. Also, the titles of individuals mentioned hereinafter refer to those at the time when this report was written
Reviewing overall international conditions in 2007, Russia, China and other countries increased their presence as their economies grew, while the international situation assumed a serious aspect of growing uncertainty and confusion, as represented by North Korea’s nuclear development program, the diversification of international terrorism in terms of its perpetrators and means, deteriorating security and continued turmoil in Iraq and Afghanistan, and political instability in Pakistan.
Regarding the situations in Japan’s neighboring countries, in the North Korean nuclear issue, Pyongyang tried to impress the world with the improvement of its relationship with the United States by signing a Joint Communique that called on Pyongyang to agree to “disable” its three nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, including a 5-megawatt reactor and a reprocessing plant, and to make a “complete and accurate declaration of its nuclear programs.” In exchange, the Communique asked the United States to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. North Korea also agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit meeting for the first time in seven years, based on the progress of the six-party talks and succeeded in acquiring a variety of economic cooperation and assistance from South Korea. On the other hand, North Korea is still strengthening its opposition to Japan’s stance on the abduction issue and its sanctions against the country. On the domestic front, North Korea has claimed to “focus on the economy” from the beginning of the year. However, besides there being little progress in social infrastructure development as evidenced by the continued power shortages flooding wreaked havoc on ordinary people’s lives. North Korean leaders had a sense of crisis about increases in instability factors that could undermine the regime, such as widening disparity between the rich and poor, and devoted their energy to domestic control.
In China, the second-term Hu Jintao administration was inaugurated after the National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). While the influence of former General Secretary Jiang Zemin remained, many executives from Hu’s parent organization, the Communist Youth League of China, were appointed to positions in the Political Bureau, illustrating the movement to fortify the administration base. As for domestic affairs, despite the government’s striving for economic stability and growth, social instability factors have increased, such as the environment issue and wealth disparity. Externally, ahead of the Beijing Olympics, China tried to improve its international status and wipe out international concerns about the “China threat” while actively developing omnidirectional cooperative diplomacy as a “responsible stakeholder.” Regarding the relationship with Japan, Premier Wen Jiabao promoted China’s willingness to improve relations as he paid a visit to Japan as an “ice-melting journey,” but demonstrated a strong self-assertive attitude in the discussion of outstanding Japan-China issues.
Russia stepped up efforts to seek the establishment of a post-Putin administration that maintains the influential power of President Putin. As for the relationship with Japan, the Northern Territories issue has remained deadlocked, and under these circumstances, Russia has started working on the construction of infrastructure in the four northern islands, with the aim of promoting its ownership of the islands as a fait accompli.
In the Middle East, the Iraqi government’s power base continued to weaken and the Middle East peace process ran into difficulties, further deepening confusion. Furthermore, Iran promoted its uranium enrichment program despite strong pressure from the international society, including the U.S. and the United Nations Security Council.
As for international terrorism, as the United States and European countries heightened their level of alert, saying that al-Qaeda was recovering its terrorist attack capabilities, al-Qaeda’s leaders appealed for “global jihad” against the U.S. and its major allies in an attempt to expand its ideological influence, in particular. In European countries including Britain and Germany, terrorist attacks were committed and large-scale terrorist plots by “home-grown terrorists” were uncovered, demonstrating afresh the danger and menace of terrorism.
Regarding Aum Shinrikyo, “Seitaishi” Joyu promoted a policy of “hiding the influence of Asahara” in order to evade surveillance. However, as the conflict between the Joyu group, which supports Joyu, and the mainstream group, which opposes him, became apparent, the Joyu group broke away from the “Religious Organization Aleph” (March) and established a new organization, “Hikarinowa” (May). Against this backdrop, a group of mid-ranking leaders, promoting full enforcement of absolute faith in Asahara, gained power in the mainstream group and stepped up moves to eliminate four “Seigoshi” leaders, excluding Ninomiya, saying that they tried to coexist with the Joyu group. As a result, two “Seigoshi” leaders left “Aleph.” The mid-ranking leaders’ group, which seized real power in the organization’s management, solidified the organization and promoted full enforcement of absolute faith in Asahara, as illustrated by the training urging members to watch a video of Asahara’s teaching at long, continuous sessions. On the other hand, after establishing a new organization, the Joyu group outwardly proclaimed that “it had broken away from Asahara.” At the same time, the group tried to expand its power, through preaching sessions at facilities across the country and a propagation and propaganda campaign with the use of the internet. However, judging from the fact that the nature of the group’s activities and teaching materials reflects Asahara’s influence, the group can be seen as still being under the influence of Asahara.
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and radical leftist groups opposed issues including the transfer of the U.S. forces’ functions and training relocation based on the planned realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, the Air Self-Defense Force’s (ASDF) Iraq reconstruction support and the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s (MSDF) refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, and held protest rallies and demonstrations in various parts of Japan. At the same time, they committed themselves to activities criticizing the government and the ruling party, taking up issues such as the amendment of the Constitution, education reform, pension record problems and “poverty and disparity.” Anti-globalization groups led by radical leftist groups had exchanges with overseas groups with an eye to moving toward protests against the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit (2008). Meanwhile, right-wing groups promoted intensified activity, giving top priority to North Korean issues including the abduction of Japanese citizens and short-range missile launches, as well as problems with Japan’s neighboring countries such as historical perspectives, and territory and sea disputes. In addition, they aggressively engaged in activities under the slogan of opposing China, seizing the opportunities of Chinese leaders’ visits to Japan.
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